Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 62058.175678 65661.623371 69268.817785 73147.900373 77198.566962 81300.788770 85766.436494
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 56650.195675 62178.968478 67872.073548 74163.567860 80912.422212 87925.514476 95755.050095
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 52488.037478 59309.707397 66492.092101 74599.529851 83477.851484 92885.972813 103590.288655
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 49026.664066 56780.370132 65098.555124 74655.774691 85301.974035 96765.598802 110010.840784
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 46384.493155 54894.367707 64174.451866 75001.556117 87240.514661 100600.291081 116238.634642
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 43970.830547 53076.137280 63154.549935 75076.984180 88732.486782 103820.809712 121687.169712
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 42486.078138 52199.965545 63095.920208 76144.686674 91264.395777 108149.330385 128344.726346
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 40480.906158 50601.783423 62101.752647 76037.964290 92366.388724 110787.235965 133030.510396
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 39405.376524 50026.592011 62235.349519 77187.297115 94878.962944 115017.009253 139537.688892
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 38214.438532 49246.236046 62068.818038 77931.848801 96878.265200 118628.237716 145321.316646
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 36735.044367 48048.347570 61343.705679 77955.890412 97980.065379 121158.181303 149822.710738
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 35300.122904 46843.235830 60554.187056 77850.602782 98884.041932 123423.561091 153993.843437
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 34547.181525 46464.388909 60760.519473 78955.424513 101261.396723 127474.543072 160347.691262
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 33701.696738 45935.232014 60755.162829 79781.662284 103292.961694 131118.387882 166239.980920
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 32710.294169 45181.040109 60436.254099 80191.340774 104794.916928 134115.957535 171360.780717
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 31610.347050 44246.214146 59854.269243 80240.095403 105826.476822 136527.949350 175769.703008
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30721.613496 43550.759710 59544.531842 80604.130214 107229.710990 139383.956925 180722.786769
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 29755.797128 42719.986236 59031.686021 80683.561494 108256.338699 141766.043099 185095.085728
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29305.012214 42550.198118 59352.243700 81814.295597 110601.277850 145781.696394 191499.780511
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28345.401042 41669.744284 58724.161575 81701.251559 111352.491653 147808.038389 195440.629455
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 27991.753960 41590.447004 59130.163637 82918.350062 113797.477886 151957.344740 202046.139846
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27480.818987 41278.713311 59215.404831 83706.692173 115688.805589 155416.655753 207805.588206
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 26688.075775 40555.662740 58733.615753 83732.146190 116582.718897 157611.854331 211980.149827